There have been lots and lots of real estate headlines. If you read them all, I won't blame you for being confused.
Here are some basic facts about the Phoenix real estate market.
We currently have a surplus of inventory new homes. New home builders are offering large discounts to sell these homes. Best estimates of how long this oversupply will last is 6 months (it could be shorter).
This situation is unbalancing the housing market for resale homes as well. Buyers can afford to be more choosy.
Recent newspaper reports have created the impression that home prices may be declining. If buyers don't have to buy, they are waiting until prices stabilize rather than buy a house and risk loosing value in a declining market.
According to a recent Census Bureau review, Maricopa County has gained 313 people a day since 2000. This translates into more people needing places to live which will tend to keep an upward pressure on housing prices. This is a MUCH longer trend than recent ups and downs in the housing market and is the best guarantee that we will shortly return to a steady upward trend in home values that has been the hallmark of the Phoenix housing market for the past decade.
If you have questions about your particular housing situation, send me an email through www.freephoenixhomeinfo.com or give me a call at 602-370-1450.
Richard
Tuesday, June 27, 2006
Wednesday, June 07, 2006
New Home Builders Cutting Back
Several recent articles in the local newspaper have indicated that several major home builders are expecting a 25% or greater sales dip.
While that may be true, what is crucial here is which years are being compared.
2005 was a very different year. If we are to have a meaningful comparison, this year's housing figures must be looked at from a 2004 (or earlier) perspective.
So, when you see these scary headlines, read the article to find out which years are being compared. Don't let the headlines scare you.
Literally EVERYTHING in the housing industry is down from last year but we are close to the 2004 housing sales figures. That is a much more meaningful comparison.
Email me or call me if you have specific questions about your own situation.
The only people who are really hurting are those that bought new or resale homes last year (2005) between May and December.
Richard
While that may be true, what is crucial here is which years are being compared.
2005 was a very different year. If we are to have a meaningful comparison, this year's housing figures must be looked at from a 2004 (or earlier) perspective.
So, when you see these scary headlines, read the article to find out which years are being compared. Don't let the headlines scare you.
Literally EVERYTHING in the housing industry is down from last year but we are close to the 2004 housing sales figures. That is a much more meaningful comparison.
Email me or call me if you have specific questions about your own situation.
The only people who are really hurting are those that bought new or resale homes last year (2005) between May and December.
Richard
Sunday, June 04, 2006
Phoenix Market Update-June 2006
There are still plenty of (confusing) newspaper headlines about the housing market. From new home permits being down 20% (they are), to the Pinal County housing market cooling (it is), to the Northwest Valley home prices holding their own (they are), one could get confused by it all.
Our basic situation is an oversupply of new home inventory that is being offered with large buyer incentives and Realtor commissions topping out at 8%! A year ago, most builders were not paying any Realtor fees! Now I am seeing almost daily offers of Realtor fees of 6% - 8% with large buyer incentives to boot.
We (the housing market) need to work our way through this excess new home inventory before we get back to "normal" ( defined as the way the market was in 2004). How long will it take to do this? No one that I know of is predicting how long it will take. My own educated guess is no longer that 12 months.
New home permits are down, so builders are reigning themselves in until the excess new home inventory is down. The nice thing is that we still have far more people moving here than are leaving, so there is a continuing demand for housing, both resale and new.
The best indicator of returning to normal will be when I stop receiving the blizzard of emails offering 6-8% Realtor fees. I will definitely let you know when that happens.
Resale homes are selling. I sold one last week in 10 days. However, it was a very very nice home with a heated pool & spa that backed up to a common area. We priced it just below the market and it sold quickly. I have other listings that are languishing a bit.
THERE ARE BUYERS OUT THERE. They are just being choosy now because they can be.
Stay tuned for the next update.
If anyone has specific questions on their home, please email me through my web site at www.freephoenixhomeinfo.com. Or just give me a call at 602-370-1450.
Richard
Our basic situation is an oversupply of new home inventory that is being offered with large buyer incentives and Realtor commissions topping out at 8%! A year ago, most builders were not paying any Realtor fees! Now I am seeing almost daily offers of Realtor fees of 6% - 8% with large buyer incentives to boot.
We (the housing market) need to work our way through this excess new home inventory before we get back to "normal" ( defined as the way the market was in 2004). How long will it take to do this? No one that I know of is predicting how long it will take. My own educated guess is no longer that 12 months.
New home permits are down, so builders are reigning themselves in until the excess new home inventory is down. The nice thing is that we still have far more people moving here than are leaving, so there is a continuing demand for housing, both resale and new.
The best indicator of returning to normal will be when I stop receiving the blizzard of emails offering 6-8% Realtor fees. I will definitely let you know when that happens.
Resale homes are selling. I sold one last week in 10 days. However, it was a very very nice home with a heated pool & spa that backed up to a common area. We priced it just below the market and it sold quickly. I have other listings that are languishing a bit.
THERE ARE BUYERS OUT THERE. They are just being choosy now because they can be.
Stay tuned for the next update.
If anyone has specific questions on their home, please email me through my web site at www.freephoenixhomeinfo.com. Or just give me a call at 602-370-1450.
Richard
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