Thursday, December 15, 2005

Headlines, Schmedlines - Don't Get Caught Believing Them

"Valley home market 'extremely' overvalued" screamed one headline. This pronouncement came from a Cleveland based mortgage lender who, evidently, did no on the ground research to reach its conclusions. Reading down in the article, long-time local housing experts said that they don't expect home values to decline.

Less than a month before the headline read "Rush is on for land in Pinal (county)". Developers are evidently paying record prices for raw land in Pinal. Hardly a sign of declining prices or declining demand.

"Housing slump is forecast" read the early December headline. But the article reported that October new home permits were running about 5% ahead of last year's record pace. Go figure!

The key to reading newspaper articles about real estate is to ignore the headline - good or bad. It is there to sell newspapers and is usually sensational, not accurate. Read the entire article as reporters usually feel honor bound to at least ask someone for a contrary view to the one contained in the headline.

Our real estate market is cooling off but cooling off from a white-hot year. So, the predictions of increases in home values of 1 to 1.5% per month in 2006 look pretty accurate now.

Also, remember to check with your insurance agent to be sure your policy limits cover the increased value of your home. If you are unsure of your home's current value, I can get you a pretty accurate figure from recent sales.

Richard

Sunday, November 27, 2005

An Expensive Change For Air Conditioner Repair

In mid January 2006, Federal energy efficiency standards will mandidate that any air conditioner unit that is rated at 12 SEER (Seasonal Energy Effeciency Rating) or less, be repaired only with existing spare parts. The manufacture of all 12 SEER units will stop in January as well as the manufacturing of all spare parts for existing 12 SEER or less A/C unitsl

After mid January 2006, all 12 SEER air conditioning units that stop working and for which there are no longer spare parts will have to be replaced by units with at least a 13 SEER rating.

If you are buying a new home, be sure you are getting a 13 SEER unit at a minimum.

If you are a homeowner with a 12 SEER or less A/C unit (such as I have), once repair parts are exhausted you will have to foot the bill for a complete replacement 13 SEER unit. So, sooner or later (probably sooner) you will have to pay for a 13 SEER unit.

Some A/C units can be retrofitted with 13 SEER compressors, some will have to be replaced. Either way, homeowners will be facing a pretty large outlay.

If you have a home warrantee in place (recommended), check with your warrantee company to see how they are going to handle the costs of upgrading. My company, America Home Shield (AHS), is going to help with the costs of this upgrades for their customers.

AHS is going to sell upgraded coverage that will cover replacing/upgrading your A/C to the new standards for about a $60 additional policy premium. Their service charge will also increase from $35 per service call to $50 per call.

Other companies may handle this situation differently.

If you haven't heard from your Home Warrantee company on this, give them a call as soon as possible and see how much they are going to charge to continue your policy coverage on your A/C unit (repair/replace) service.

If what they tell you they will be charging for A/C coverage shocks you, shop around and see if another company is less expensive. Be sure to give yourself enough time to get this done before January.

The silver lining in all this is that your cooling bills will go down with the new units.

You can call me for more details at 602-370-1450.

Richard

Tuesday, November 15, 2005

November '05 Market Report

Headlines, Headlines, more and more headlines. Real Estate in the Phoenix area is still front page news.

Don't believe the headlines you are seeing in the local press or at least read the entire article before making up your mind.

We have seen everything from "Housing prices dropping" to (today) the National Association of Realtors saying that Phoenix house prices have increased 55% since this time last year (average national increase in home values was 15% for the same period).

What it boils down to is this. While marketing time is increasing along with the number of available homes, almost all the knowledgable people are predicting a robust 2006 for real estate with conservative monthly increases in value around 1.5%

We are still ahead of where we were last year in number of resale home sales. I spent all last weekend looking at new homes with out of town buyers. Most builders had some lots available but everyone was predicting that monthly (and sometimes weekly) price increases were going to continue with their builders. That means that the price of resale homes will be going up as well. If interest rates spike up, this could change.

SUMMARY: The frantic pace of last summer is cooling off. Home prices are still going up and are forecast to do so for this coming year. The pace of home sales is still brisk but not as frantic as this past Spring and Summer. Real estate is still a very good investment.

Richard

Sunday, October 16, 2005

Headlines Of "Slowdown" Not Necessarily True

The headlines this past week warned that resale home prices are "peaking" and the rising interest rates "may slow sales of homes". Don't believe it.

If you read down into the stories you see that in August of this year, more resale homes were sold in the Phoenix market than August of a year ago. And while interest rates area up, they aren't up that much.

We do have increasing inventory in resale homes and increasing days on the market but the median home price reached an all time high last month of $263,000.

So, while things have cooled off, prices are still increasing and there is quite a bit of buyer pressure still out there in the market.

Richard

Thursday, September 29, 2005

Phoenix Real Estate Numbers Up

According to the just-released RL Brown Phoenix Housing Market Letter, Phoenix home sales numbers are up across the board.

Compared to the first 8 months of last year (2004), residential resales are up 27%, new home sales are up 18.8% and residential building permits are up by 6.6%.

With the new high for the average price of a Phoenix home (see my earlier post), the real estate market here is apparently still healthy and strong.

Richard

Thursday, September 22, 2005

Mortgage Rates Inch Up For Second Week

Mortgage rates nationally posted a small weekly increase of 4/100's of a point. Here is the story.

NEW YORK, Sept 22, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Mortgage rates increased slightly as the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates for the eleventh consecutive time, and oil prices remained volatile. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased from 5.84 percent to 5.88 percent, according to Bankrate.com's weekly national survey of large lenders. The 30-year fixed rate mortgages in this week's survey had an average of 0.36 discount and origination points.

Saturday, September 17, 2005

Polybutylene (PB) plumbing help

If you own or have owned a home that has PB pipe for its plumbing, you might be eligible for money from a country-wide settlement fund. PB pipe was found to be unsuitable for homes and businesses because of its limited life and tendency to leak.

Money is available to help with the cost of re-plumbing a home where PB pipe was used.

You must have owned the home between 1978 and 1995 to be eligible for your part of the settlement money. There are other requirements that you can check out at the recovery website. Click here for the recovery website and then go to the "Guidelines" link.

Richard

Thursday, September 15, 2005

Phoenix Home Market Update - Sept 2005

The headline (correctly) reads:

"Demand is still strong, but Valley home frenzy calming".

According to ASU Real Estate Department figures, the average monthly increase in overall residential real estate values has slowed to 1.4% per month. This is down from around 5% per month earlier this year.

Average time on the market for resale homes is at just over 25 days versus 5.6 days in January 2005.

But, the median price for an existing home in the Valley climbed to $258,700 in August, a new record, showing that we are still headed in an upward direction.

Resale home inventory (number of homes on the market) is increasing as well.

Although there is no way to directly monitor this, it appears that investor money in the real estate market is becoming less of a factor. Investors are still here but not in the numbers they were earlier in the year.

So, we are still in a relatively strong uptrend in prices but the pace of that increase has slowed.

Stay tuned.

Richard

We Are Changing Our Corporate Name

As things go in the corporate real estate world, changes are pretty common. The latest is the acquisition of Coldwell Banker Success Realty by a national company called NRT.

Just so you won't be confused if you call the office, our new name is Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage. Nothing changes in our day to day operation or our people, just the new name.

Here is part of the press release from today:

PARSIPPANY, N.J. and SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. – September 15, 2005 — NRT Incorporated, the nation’s largest residential real estate brokerage company, today announced it has acquired the assets of CMLB, Ltd., which operates as Coldwell Banker Success Realty in Scottsdale, Ariz. With this announcement, Coldwell Banker Success Realty, one of the largest Coldwell Banker® franchisees, will now be owned and operated by NRT.

Mortgage Rates Show Small Weekly Rise

Here are the details of the small national increase in mortgage rates this week.

NEW YORK, Sept 15, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Mortgage rates were little changed as the economic impact of Hurricane Katrina remains unknown. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased from 5.8 percent to 5.84 percent, according to Bankrate.com's weekly national survey of large lenders. The 30-year fixed rate mortgages in this week's survey had an average of 0.37 discount and origination points

Richard

Monday, September 12, 2005

A Good Mortgage Education Web Site

I ran across a good mortgage education web site run by a retired professor from the Warton School of Business.

The site features information on the numerous types of mortgages available and downloadable spreadsheet programs that allow you to evaluate your current mortgage, see the financial effects of paying additional money on your mortgage and other useful information.

The spreadsheets allow you to do "what if" evaluations of your existing mortgage (what if I doubled my principle payments each month) or a new one you might be considering.

Here is the link to the site: http://www.mtgprofessor.com/

Feel free to let me know what you think.

Richard

Thursday, September 01, 2005

Tips On Choosing A Home Inspector

A vital part of buying a resale or new home these days is to have it inspected by a licensed home inspector.

Here are a few tips on how to choose your home inspector (from a local home inspection company). Your Realtor can also be a valuable source of information on which are the best inspectors.

Compare Home Inspectors to protect your buyers and yourself!

Few other Professions have seen the kind of influx of new recruits that the Home Inspection trade has experienced in recent years. The number of home inspectors in Arizona has DOUBLED in the last few years. It is prudent to hire an Inspector that is experienced in the field and you should:

Ask your inspector how many Inspections he or she has performed.
Check with the Board of Technical Registration for Arizona.
Make sure they are insured with E&O and general Liability insurance.
Ask if they are a member of a national organization. Ie: ASHI, NAHI
Beware of "Low-ball" quotes. (It costs money to operate a top notch business).

Mortgage Rates Continue To Drop

Mortgage rates declined again this week amid economic uncertainty. Here are the details:

NEW YORK, Sept 01, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Fixed mortgage rates fell for the third straight week amid increased economic uncertainty stemming from the continued increase in oil and gasoline prices. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell from 5.86 percent to 5.8 percent, according to Bankrate.com's weekly national survey of large lenders. The 30-year fixed rate mortgages in this week's survey had an average of 0.36 discount and origination points

Friday, August 19, 2005

Mortgage Rates Decline Nationally

Good News!! Bankrate.com's weekly national survey of large lenders showed that fixed mortgage rates declined this week after six consectutive weeks of rising rates. According to Bankrate.com, the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage decreased from 5.96 to 5.88 percent. Bankrate said that the mortgages in this week's survey had an average of 0.37 discount and origination points.

Richard

Tuesday, August 16, 2005

Price slowing seen in July

Valley-wide real estate statistics show that the rate of increase for home prices in the Valley was at 2% - the lowest monthly rate of increase for this year. This is from the Arizona State University Department of Real Estate and mirrors what we Realtors are seeing in the field with inventories increasing and selling times getting longer.

According to an article in the Arizona Republic today, housing in the overall Phoenix area had prices increase 47% over the past year. The July median cost for a resale home rose to $255,000.

Local pricing increases have been triple the national rate for all of 2005. The expert's prediction (based only one month's data - July) is that the rate of increase will slow over the next several months until it approaches the national average.

According to the article, industry experts predict that the number of sales and price increases will slow but remain at fairly healthy levels.

So, no bubble to burst but it looks like we will have a reduction in the rate of increase in the price of homes.

Stay tuned!

Richard

Mortgage Mania

"Mortgage Mania" was the headline of the Arizona Republic article two days ago describing some of the new and different mortgage options available for home buyers in the Phoenix area (and elsewhere).

Some of these are structured very differently from what you are used to seeing. You need to know the different types to keep your home financing situation under your control.

INTEREST ONLY loans are just that - you are required to pay only the interest charges on a monthly basis. The upsides are lower payments and flexibility (you only pay on the principal when you have the money). But, you can find yourself in a mortgage for a long time if you don't pay the principal down regularly. It requires good financial discipline to manage this loan effectively.

80/20 OR PIGGYBACK loans. This is where the homebuyer gets two mortgages. One for 80% of the value of the home at a normal interest rate, the second for the remaining 20% of the value of the home at a higher rate of interest. The advantage of this type of loan is little or no down payment required to buy a home. Escrow officers tell me that they are seeing a lot of this type of piggybacking now. The disadvantage is that you will have two payments to make each month with one with a pretty high rate of interest. Make sure you can cover both loans and not be "house poor".

OPTION ADJUSTABLE-RATE loans. These loans are new and allow borrowers to pay less than the interest due on a mortgage by deferring part of the payment and adding it to the original loan balance. While it reduces payment amounts, this type of loan could quickly spiral out of control if at least the interest due on the loan isn't paid regularly. These loans offer the lowest payments but you could end up owing more on the loan than what they originally paid for the home.

Knowledge is power. Inform yourself as fully as you can before signing a mortgage. Knowing what you are getting into will go a long way toward keeping you out of future financial trouble with your mortgage.

Richard

Thursday, August 11, 2005

Phoenix Area Home Market Update 8-11-05

Here, for what it is worth, is a clip from a recent Arizona Republic article on future predictions for the Phoenix area home market. This is just one article (among many) and is a point of view to consider (among many) in predicting what might happen in the Phoenix home market.

Home sales likely at or near peak in Valley

Prices predicted to rise 10% in '06
Catherine ReagorThe Arizona RepublicAug. 10, 2005 12:00 AM

Home sales across metropolitan Phoenix are near or at a peak, but any slowing should be less than what is expected nationally.Valley housing analysts are calling for home prices to increase next year by at least 10 percent, double the rate the National Association of Realtors forecast for the U.S. housing market Tuesday in a midyear cautionary report. Metro Phoenix home sales, which so far are 25 percent ahead of last year's record pace, could fall less than 10 percent in 2006.

"No one says the market is going to crash, only that the housing market's growth rate won't continue at this pace," said Jay Butler, director of the Arizona Real Estate Center at Arizona State University's Polytechnic campus. This year, the median price of a U.S. existing home is expected to climb 10.5 percent, to reach $204,000. Through June, the median price of an existing metro Phoenix home had already jumped 32 percent, to hit a record $250,000. Valley home sales and prices likely climbed again in July. Those figures will be released next week. But there are signs the market's frenzy could be ebbing. The past two months, it has taken longer for Valley homes to sell, and the number of homes for sale has climbed.

Tuesday, July 26, 2005

Phoenix Home Market Update - July 2005

If you read the newspapers, you will see many articles on the state and future of the Phoenix home market.

Everything from "it's going to bust" to "we are still going up" can be found in local and national newspaper articles.

Here is a summary from an article in the Sunday Edition of the Arizona Republic newspaper from July 24, 2005

One of the questions asked to a panel of experts was "What do you predict will happen to the [Phoenix] housing market in the next four to six months?"

Here are some of the answers:

"The market will stay very strong over the next four to six months, and then we anticipate a moderation of price increases in new and resale homes, but not a dramatic change in velocity."
RL Brown - publisher of The Phoenix Housing Market Letter

"For four to six months I see no major changes from the current pace. In the next year to 18 months I see home price inflation dropping to half of today's rate [3% - 5% per month].
Eric Brown - President of Engle Homes division.

"My perception is the market will mirror the past two to three years of growth"
Scott Peterson - President of Element Homes

The entire article can be accessed at www.azcentral.com. Search for "Bubble Trouble" in the search box. You may have to go to the archives if you access the article after Aug 1st.

Richard

Monday, July 18, 2005


Richard Haworth Posted by Picasa

Moving Costs Scam

Rick DeBruhl of Phoenix Channel 12 "Call 12 For Action" wrote recently in the Arizona Republic of moving company scams where they contract to move your household furniture for a certain price but demand more money before releasing your furniture because "your load was heavier than estimated".

To avoid this unpleasant situation from costing you money you can get a "Binding Estimate" from the moving company beforehand which should keep them from charging you more than the contract estimated price and prevent them from holding your furniture hostage.

Another source of potential help is the Arizona Department of Weights and Measures. They can be found on the State of Arizona web site under departments. If requested, they can send their representative when the mover arrives at your new home, require that the movers weigh the truck before and after your furniture is unloaded and not charge you more than they are actually owed for any extra weight.

Look, movers do their own estimate of your furniture's weight. They are supposedly professionals and should, as professionals, know how to do a valid estimate (or at least tell you that there might be an overage at the other end).

You have a right to expect your movers to be professionals and provide a service free of surprises.

Richard

Welcome to my Real Estate blog

I have designed this blog site to provide up to date real estate news and developments about the greater Phoenix area.

For some time I have wanted to find a way to provide my clients and friends with real estate news and developments that were not confined to a monthly newsletter and limited space.

Here you will be able to see a variety of articles and news about the fast-paced Phoenix area real estate market on your schedule. Check it as often as you like for late-breaking news and developments.

The archives here will let you revisit earlier posts whenever you need the information. So, it should develop into a repository of useful information on many aspects of buying and selling real estate.

I hope you find it useful.

Richard

Richard Haworth
Coldwell Banker Success Realty
602-370-1450 cell
www.freephoenixhomeinfo.com