Even though we are close to October, here are some statistics from August (the latest available) on new home permits,new home and resale sales. These are from RL Brown's newsletter. He is a long time and well respected real estate analyist who has been on the scene in the Phoenix area for many years.
Richard
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Relative to the following chart RL Brown says, “…the answers to the housing dilemma in Metro Phoenix in the days ahead are actually contained in this data, especially when coupled with a willingness to forget 2004-2005, and to look back at the market opportunities and solutions of the 2000-2003 period for strategies, structures, and business plans and positioning.”
NEW HOME CLOSINGS Aug 08
Sales for Month 1,634
Same Month Last Year 3,110
Percent Change -47.46%
Year to Date Closings 14,527
Year to Date Last Year 25,675
Percent Change -43.42%
PERMITS
Permits for Month 970
Same Month Last Year 2,705
Percent Change -64.14%
Year to Date Permits 10,708
Year to Date Last Year 25,927
Percent Change -58.70%
RESALES
Resales Last Month 5,285
Same Month Last Year 4,643
Percent Change 13.83%
Year to Date Resales 37,373
Year to Date Last Year 44,982
Percent Change -16.92%
The resale numbers reflect both Pinal and Maricopa and counts units by owner as well.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Our FInancial Meltdown -The Real Beginning
At the risk of getting into hot water with some people, here is my perspective on how we got into the current financial mess in this country.
In order to solve a problem you must get back to where it actually started. So, with regard to the housing mess and governmental bailouts, where is that?
Well, the best explanation I have heard is that it all started with "Affordable Housing". How so? If you look at what toppled the mortgage market, Lehman Brothers, AIG and all the smaller banks taken over recently, behind it all are the questionable loans issued 3 -5 years ago.
No doc, adjustible rate and 80/20 (100%) loans (just to mention a few) put people in houses who really could not afford them. That subprime paper found its way to Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Lehman Brothers, AIG and many banks which bought these loans as part of investments portfolios.
Now there are mis-management situations with Freddie, Fanny, AIG and others. But if that subprime paper was not available, chances are the volume of bad investments would not have reached the crisis proportions we are seeing now.
There you have it. But for the "Affordable Housing" mantra from Washington politicians over the years, we would not be in the mess we have on our hands today.
Feel free to comment.
Richard
In order to solve a problem you must get back to where it actually started. So, with regard to the housing mess and governmental bailouts, where is that?
Well, the best explanation I have heard is that it all started with "Affordable Housing". How so? If you look at what toppled the mortgage market, Lehman Brothers, AIG and all the smaller banks taken over recently, behind it all are the questionable loans issued 3 -5 years ago.
No doc, adjustible rate and 80/20 (100%) loans (just to mention a few) put people in houses who really could not afford them. That subprime paper found its way to Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Lehman Brothers, AIG and many banks which bought these loans as part of investments portfolios.
Now there are mis-management situations with Freddie, Fanny, AIG and others. But if that subprime paper was not available, chances are the volume of bad investments would not have reached the crisis proportions we are seeing now.
There you have it. But for the "Affordable Housing" mantra from Washington politicians over the years, we would not be in the mess we have on our hands today.
Feel free to comment.
Richard
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Short Sale Homes
While short sales are fairly simple in theory, many Realtors and buyers are finding them very frustrating. The primary problem is the weeks and weeks it takes for the bank or lender to respond to offers from interested buyers.
You see listings that say they have "Short Sale Expeditors" on hand to help. My experience with these expeditors is that they are of little real assistance as they don't do anything but call and pester the bank to make a decision on the offer (something that any Realtor could do by themselves).
Well, a Realtor in my office has tackled that problem head on. He will be debuting his short sale service shortly. He has gotten to know the real decision makers at many of the local banks and knows how to put a presentation together that they can decide on in a couple of hours instead of waiting weeks and weeks for someone at a lower level to make a decision.
If you or someone you know are about to be or are in the middle of a short sale problem and would like some help, give me a call at 602-370-1450 and I will hook you up with this Realtor for a frank evaluation of your short sale situation.
Richard
You see listings that say they have "Short Sale Expeditors" on hand to help. My experience with these expeditors is that they are of little real assistance as they don't do anything but call and pester the bank to make a decision on the offer (something that any Realtor could do by themselves).
Well, a Realtor in my office has tackled that problem head on. He will be debuting his short sale service shortly. He has gotten to know the real decision makers at many of the local banks and knows how to put a presentation together that they can decide on in a couple of hours instead of waiting weeks and weeks for someone at a lower level to make a decision.
If you or someone you know are about to be or are in the middle of a short sale problem and would like some help, give me a call at 602-370-1450 and I will hook you up with this Realtor for a frank evaluation of your short sale situation.
Richard
Phoenix Home Market Update for September 2008
We got a briefing today from our affilated mortgage company regarding future trends for the Phoenix area.
Our home pricing trends will be affected by several recent news items. First is a news item I heard on the radio several days ago announcing that a record number of "foreclosure related" letters will be going out to Phoenix area homeowners this month.
Second, the federal downpayment assistance programs for first time homebuyers are going away on October 1 of this year. And third, about 5,000 adjustable rate mortgages in the Phoenix area will be resetting before December.
All this adds up to fewer buyers eligible for loans and mortgage payment increases for 5,000 additional home owners.
So, it ain't over yet. Predictions are currently that the downward pressure on home prices will continue through most of 2009.
Two bright spots showed up however. Since the Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac takeovers by the government, mortgage rates have fallen back into the high 5% area. And, there are a lot of very good buys out there for homes. You need to be selective but you can find very good buys on good homes if you look around.
You takes your positive news where you can get it.
Contact me if you have questions that are specific you your particular home or financial situation.
Richard
Our home pricing trends will be affected by several recent news items. First is a news item I heard on the radio several days ago announcing that a record number of "foreclosure related" letters will be going out to Phoenix area homeowners this month.
Second, the federal downpayment assistance programs for first time homebuyers are going away on October 1 of this year. And third, about 5,000 adjustable rate mortgages in the Phoenix area will be resetting before December.
All this adds up to fewer buyers eligible for loans and mortgage payment increases for 5,000 additional home owners.
So, it ain't over yet. Predictions are currently that the downward pressure on home prices will continue through most of 2009.
Two bright spots showed up however. Since the Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac takeovers by the government, mortgage rates have fallen back into the high 5% area. And, there are a lot of very good buys out there for homes. You need to be selective but you can find very good buys on good homes if you look around.
You takes your positive news where you can get it.
Contact me if you have questions that are specific you your particular home or financial situation.
Richard
New Home Caution
Dear Friends,
Here is a story I found about new home sales. The circumstances are actually what has to happen when you buy a new home. And, believe it or not, I am not blowing my own horn when I advise you to use a Realtor (which costs you nothing) when buying a new home. Not all builders will try and pull this kind of stunt but in today's market builders are in troubled financial times (like we homeowners are), so the old adage of Buyer Beware applies.
Here is the story:
"A salesperson for a new home community shared this horror story with me.
This associate told me that a buyer went directly to the builder to negotiate a deal without Realtor representation. This buyer negotiated what he assumed was a good deal and was set to close on his inventory property about 45 days from contract signing.
After receiving copies of the contract the buyer signed that day, he patiently waited for his new home to be built. When the time of closing arrives the builders developer mentions that they never signed the selling side of the contracts and thus there is not an executed contract and did not have to honor the terms that were agreed to previously.
Meanwhile this buyer had his moving truck parked outside of the driveway and no home to move into. Eventually the buyer and the developer worked things out and the buyer purchased the home but of course on the seller's terms.
If I didn't hear this story from my friend I would have not believed it happened, but these confirm the reasons why buyers need representation when involving any type of real estate."
Here is a story I found about new home sales. The circumstances are actually what has to happen when you buy a new home. And, believe it or not, I am not blowing my own horn when I advise you to use a Realtor (which costs you nothing) when buying a new home. Not all builders will try and pull this kind of stunt but in today's market builders are in troubled financial times (like we homeowners are), so the old adage of Buyer Beware applies.
Here is the story:
"A salesperson for a new home community shared this horror story with me.
This associate told me that a buyer went directly to the builder to negotiate a deal without Realtor representation. This buyer negotiated what he assumed was a good deal and was set to close on his inventory property about 45 days from contract signing.
After receiving copies of the contract the buyer signed that day, he patiently waited for his new home to be built. When the time of closing arrives the builders developer mentions that they never signed the selling side of the contracts and thus there is not an executed contract and did not have to honor the terms that were agreed to previously.
Meanwhile this buyer had his moving truck parked outside of the driveway and no home to move into. Eventually the buyer and the developer worked things out and the buyer purchased the home but of course on the seller's terms.
If I didn't hear this story from my friend I would have not believed it happened, but these confirm the reasons why buyers need representation when involving any type of real estate."
Tuesday, September 02, 2008
Free Local Mortgage Counselling
If you are in trouble with your mortgage or think you may be in the future, this will interest you. What is below is from my local Real Estate Board's newsletter.
Sign Up TODAY! - Open Forum (September 3-6th) to Kick off 3-day Anti-foreclosure Event in Surprise
Surprise AZ (August 1, 2008) An open community conversation featuring a panel of experts on home finance is set for September 3, kicking off a three-day event where residents with mortgage related worries can get free counseling on how to hang on to their homes.
The forum, approved by the Surprise City Council and organized by the Ad Hoc Committee on Foreclosures and Credit Union West, will begin 7 at p.m. at Radiant Church at the corner of Reems Road and Paradise Lane in Surprise. Expert panelists will respond to written questions from the audience or questions e-mailed through a city web site.
On September 4, 5 and 6, forum attendees can meet with HUD-certified counselors for free one-on-one counseling about issues relating to home finance. Sign up for the free appointments is available at the forum event on September 3.
“As in many communities around the country, there are people in Surprise who are concerned about losing their homes," says Ad Committee on Foreclosure Chair Monica Davis. “We are being proactive here in Surprise. A good way to get people started on the path of retaining home ownership is by offering an educational forum and free counseling.”
More information on the forum and counseling is available at www.surpriseaz.com. The site includes an e-mail link for residents to send questions for the panel to consider, and a video about the event and the free counseling.
The community forum will be videotaped by city cable channel Surprise11, which streams live on the internet. A video file of the forum will be posted on the net for viewing at any time.
Sign Up TODAY! - Open Forum (September 3-6th) to Kick off 3-day Anti-foreclosure Event in Surprise
Surprise AZ (August 1, 2008) An open community conversation featuring a panel of experts on home finance is set for September 3, kicking off a three-day event where residents with mortgage related worries can get free counseling on how to hang on to their homes.
The forum, approved by the Surprise City Council and organized by the Ad Hoc Committee on Foreclosures and Credit Union West, will begin 7 at p.m. at Radiant Church at the corner of Reems Road and Paradise Lane in Surprise. Expert panelists will respond to written questions from the audience or questions e-mailed through a city web site.
On September 4, 5 and 6, forum attendees can meet with HUD-certified counselors for free one-on-one counseling about issues relating to home finance. Sign up for the free appointments is available at the forum event on September 3.
“As in many communities around the country, there are people in Surprise who are concerned about losing their homes," says Ad Committee on Foreclosure Chair Monica Davis. “We are being proactive here in Surprise. A good way to get people started on the path of retaining home ownership is by offering an educational forum and free counseling.”
More information on the forum and counseling is available at www.surpriseaz.com. The site includes an e-mail link for residents to send questions for the panel to consider, and a video about the event and the free counseling.
The community forum will be videotaped by city cable channel Surprise11, which streams live on the internet. A video file of the forum will be posted on the net for viewing at any time.
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